Expectations for a bullish rally have crumbled following the recent debut of the famous memecoin’s exchange-traded fund. Despite market anticipation, the Dogecoin ETF launch (GDOG) by Grayscale has recorded alarmingly low initial activity. Official market data confirms that investor response has been much weaker than predicted, evidencing a disconnect between social noise and actual committed capital.
The figures are compelling and reveal a lack of immediate institutional appetite. On its opening day, the product recorded zero capital inflows, an unusual fact for an asset of its popularity. By Tuesday, total accumulated flows amounted to just $1.8 million. In contrast, the Hedera (HBAR) ETF, with a significantly smaller market capitalization of $6 billion, managed to capture $2.2 million on its first day of trading, outperforming the meme giant.
This performance underscores a critical divergence in the asset’s fundamental valuation. The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) indicator has experienced a sharp increase, which is traditionally interpreted as a bearish signal. A high NVT suggests that market valuation is growing much faster than actual transactional activity on the blockchain, implying the asset is overvalued relative to its current utility.
Historically, these NVT levels precede price corrections, as they reflect unsustainable speculation without usage backing. Although DOGE continues to trend on social media, this popularity has not translated into a significant increase in on-chain transactions. Therefore, this mismatch highlights the latent risk of further drops if network usage volume fails to justify the current market valuation.
Can Dogecoin break technical resistance and avoid a deeper drop?
From a technical perspective, the asset remains trapped under a persistent downtrend that has lasted nearly a month. Trading near $0.149, the price struggles to overcome the immediate resistance of $0.151. Without a strong catalyst, such as an increase in real demand, the price is likely to continue oscillating under this critical trendline, with a risk of descending toward the $0.142 support if selling pressure intensifies.
However, the scenario could change drastically if new demand enters the market. A decisive breakout above the current downtrend could push the price toward $0.162 and even $0.175. Such a move would invalidate the current bearish thesis but requires investors to regain the conviction lost after the Dogecoin ETF launch. Thus, the coming days will be crucial to define whether the asset regains its momentum or deepens its correction.
