Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the $12 billion fund Bitwise, expressed confidence in a crypto market recovery. During a recent interview with CNBC on November 5, Hougan stated that he is optimistic about a Bitcoin rally before the year ends. His optimism on Bitcoin’s price is based on the “maximum desperation” he currently observes among retail investors.
Hougan described the current market sentiment as the most depressive level. This, he believes, signals a market bottom, not the end of the cycle. He mentioned the recent wave of leveraged liquidations and yield protocol failures as evidence of capitulation. Furthermore, Hougan highlighted that the crypto market is shifting toward an institutionally driven one. He considers this element to be, in fact, bullish for the Q1 2026 outlook.
This perspective is not isolated. Tom Lee of Fundstrat Capital also expressed optimism on CNBC following the sharp liquidation on October 10. Lee noted that the market is still consolidating from the “miniature rupture” of that event. However, Lee argues that the fundamentals remain strong. He cited record stablecoin volumes and surging application revenues on Ethereum and Solana.
Is Retail Capitulation the Definitive Signal for Institutional Entry?
Tom Lee maintains bold price targets despite the short-term weakness. He still believes Bitcoin can reach between $150,000 and $200,000. On the other hand, professional trader ‘Mayne’ also supports the bullish thesis. He bases it on the historic four-year cycle. Mayne noted that the BTC/Gold ratio appears to have bottomed. Historically, gold tends to lead Bitcoin breakouts by 60 to 90 days.
The medium-term outlook points to a cycle peak in late 2025 or early 2026. ‘Mayne’ warns that if the cycle holds, 2026 could be a mostly bearish year, although he does not expect an 80% crash. Meanwhile, analyst ‘Credibull’ considers the current correction healthy. He affirmed that Bitcoin on high timeframes remains unequivocally bullish. The digital asset economy is maturing with this new institutional dynamic.
