Current technical analysis points to a possible rise of XRP toward $5.00, supported by price patterns and key levels between $2.49 and $2.63 that suggest a re-accumulation phase. Validation will depend on a breakout with volume and on imminent regulatory milestones that would impact institutional investors, product managers and compliance teams through their effect on liquidity and listings. The time frame is concentrated mainly in 2025 and potentially into early 2026.
On longer timeframes a “cup and handle” formation is identified, a classic bullish continuation pattern, together with a lower consolidation between $2.49 and $2.63 that acts as a supply absorption zone. Relevant resistances are located at $2.80 and $3.60; a breakout with volume above these levels would constitute a technical confirmation that would open the way toward projected targets.
A Fibonacci extension analysis places an extended target around $5.53, with a time window concentrated mainly in 2025 and potentially into early 2026. “A high-volume breakout would confirm the bullish momentum”, according to technical analysts who follow the asset. Technical definition: a “cup and handle” is a chart pattern where price forms a rounded basin followed by a narrow consolidation (the “handle”), whose breakout usually indicates continuation of the prior trend.
Implications for XRP price
The possible catalyst would not be purely technical. Ripple’s regulatory dispute with the SEC has a decisive milestone: a ruling scheduled for August 15 that, if favorable, would remove the regulatory overhang and could unlock institutional capital inflows. Significant corporate moves are also mentioned —a SPAC-type deal aiming to establish an XRP treasury of $1 billion— and signs of inclusion in benchmark indices, which together could generate a “supply shock” if demand exceeds available liquidity.
The removal of regulatory risk would increase the likelihood of significant capital flows. Corporate moves and index inclusions could reduce the circulating supply available.
Upcoming verified milestone: the ruling in the Ripple–SEC case scheduled for August 15; its outcome, together with technical confirmation via a breakout with volume, will determine whether the path toward $5.00 maintains a high probability in 2025. In this context, monitoring levels, volume and regulatory developments will be decisive for decision making.
