XRP trades above $3 again, reviving talk of a 40% climb before October ends. Chart signals aim at $4.00–$4.40, yet large wallets sending coins to the market and shrinking network activity could cap the rise. Product managers, trading desks and compliance teams are watching the move because it alters liquidity, volatility and risk limits.
The bull argument rests on three chart features: price held $2.95, a bull pennant formed, and a cup-and-handle shape points to $4.00–$4.40, with $5.80 as an outlier. These levels frame the scenario for a potential 40% advance into October if momentum persists.
A daily close above $4.18 would shift the structure and keep the upward story intact. Conversely, a break below $2.95 opens a path to $2.40 per chart levels, which would undercut the October scenario and signal a deeper correction.
On-chain signals and market implications
On-chain figures give a different view. Santiment reports that wallets holding 1–10 million XRP sold more than 160 million XRP, worth about $476 million, in fourteen days, a flow that can cap the rise. “On-chain data” means numbers pulled straight from the ledger — wallet balances, transaction counts and address activity.
Network use has shrunk alongside this selling, with daily active addresses falling from roughly 50,482 in July to about 21,000 — a drop close to 58% — while new wallets per day slid from 11,000 to 4,300. Fewer users and lower liquidity raise the chance that a chart-driven move lacks backing demand.
The drop in active addresses shows retail traffic is down, which can slow use cases and institutional tests that need steady uptake.
The ~$476 million whale sale raises slippage besides volatility, a concern for trading desks and custodians managing execution and limits.
The price must stay above $2.95 for the 40% October scenario to stay alive; a decisive break below can send the market to $2.40, per chart levels. Faster turnover of big positions forces tighter KYC and AML checks inside custody or settlement rails to manage heightened flows.
The next operational test is to hold $2.95 and then record a close above $4.18; the cited charts show that outcome decides whether the 40% October advance stays on the table or the market slips back into a correction.
