The price of XRP has triggered market alarms after slipping below the psychological $1.60 level, marking its lowest point in over 14 months. This movement confirms an XRP bearish trend that, according to current technical patterns, could extend throughout February if it fails to reclaim critical support zones immediately.
The recent 14% drop from $1.75 has pushed the asset into a technical breakdown phase, where demand exhaustion appears to be the determining factor. In fact, on-chain analysis experts suggest that the price is now in a high-risk zone, where the lack of active institutional buyers could accelerate a collapse toward levels not seen since last year.
Bear pennant configuration and price targets
From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart reveals a textbook “bear pennant” formation, whose breakdown projects a downside target near $1.22. This XRP bearish trend was reinforced when the price failed to hold after retesting the lower trendline, representing a risk of an additional 23% decline from its current valuation.
On the other hand, analyst Alex Clay has noted that after breaching the support line of a double-bottom pattern at $1.60, the path is cleared to test the $1.00 level. Furthermore, if the asset loses the aggregate realized price of $1.48, the average holder would be underwater, replicating a scenario similar to the 2022 bear phase that culminated in massive 50% corrections.
Can declining open interest stop the collapse?
Despite the gloomy outlook, there is one signal that bulls are watching cautiously: the notable decrease in futures market open interest, which fell to $2.61 billion. When this indicator declines alongside price, it often indicates that leveraged selling pressure is becoming exhausted, which could be the prelude to a short-term stabilization or trend reversal.
However, CryptoQuant data shows that spot market buy orders (CVD) have declined sharply since early January, suggesting extreme exhaustion among investors. This lack of enthusiasm for the native cryptocurrency of Ripple makes any recovery attempt toward $1.85 resistance difficult, leaving the asset vulnerable to further liquidations if general market sentiment does not significantly improve.
Looking ahead, XRP’s success in February will depend on its ability to defend the support belt between $1.43 and $1.48. While momentum indicators like the RSI suggest oversold conditions, the market requires a massive entry of liquidity to invalidate the current bearish scenario. Otherwise, investors should prepare for a period of deep consolidation or a search for lower floors near one dollar.
