Zcash has shot up far faster than most coins, with data logging a 74 percent jump in seven days, 520 percent in thirty days and 639 percent in a year. The climb now sits at technical and fundamental levels that point to a likely pullback, and traders and custodians face a real threat of thin order books and a sudden flip lower.
Data show the rally has overheated: the Relative Strength Index has pushed into territory it rarely reaches and a bearish divergence has appeared as price sets higher peaks while the RSI refuses to follow. Volume has also dropped, a sign that fewer participants support the move.
The report flags two patterns: a rising wedge and a drop below the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level near $235. Data warns of a “bull trap” and models two paths: a fall of roughly 30 percent or a slide back under $200 from the recent top.
On the fundamental side, Zcash still mints new coins faster than many rivals, diluting each coin’s slice of the network. Its zK-SNARKs privacy tool no longer belongs only to Zcash—Ethereum and other chains now deploy the same code, erasing a clear edge and scaring off large institutions. Regulators also treat privacy coins with extra suspicion, a cloud that hangs over wider adoption.
Technical signs of exhaustion
Sharp swings are a real risk—a technical pullback of more than 30 percent would hit leveraged players and market makers. Thin books and low volume can magnify downside if many holders sell at once. Rival tech narrows Zcash’s once-unique use case as privacy tools live on other chains, while a legal fog keeps exchanges and banks wary, limiting broader adoption.
Data labels the rally fragile and urges caution. The report lists price targets for both May besides October 2025, a spread that shows how little agreement exists on fair value. Until real volume returns, the tech edge sharpens or laws turn clearer, the uptrend looks easier to break than to hold.
