HBAR fell 6% amid a broader market pullback, drawing attention to whether the decline signals deeper weakness or a setup for recovery. Three technical and flow-based signals point to an early rebound that could develop if buyers maintain pressure.
HBAR’s short-term indicators show a loss of seller conviction even as price declined, with the Money Flow Index (MFI) trending higher on lower timeframes while the token fell, suggesting rising buying pressure into the dip. The Bull–Bear Power (BBP) indicator has been in steady decline since early September, consistent with easing bearish dominance. Traders also noted a hidden bullish divergence, where price formed a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a lower low, a pattern that often precedes corrective strength.
The token’s strong prior run — a roughly 330% gain over the past year — provides context for why such divergences are being treated as potential trend continuations rather than isolated bounces.
Spot flows and support levels for HBAR
Flow data reveal contrasting behavior between derivatives and spot participants, with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) spiking after recent corrections to indicate net buying by holders on spot markets; CMF calculates buying and selling pressure by combining volume and price movement over a specified period. At the same time, large holders reduced exposure, reportedly offloading about 110 million HBAR — roughly $20.9 million — in under two weeks, while smaller or strategic buyers stepped in to acquire dips. This transfer of supply can firm price floors if accumulation persists.
Critical price zones are currently acting as bastions, with HBAR showing resilience around $0.12, $0.14, $0.145, $0.153 and $0.1688, levels that have historically attracted buyers and may limit downside in the short term. To validate a more durable reversal, markets likely need a sustained reclaim of $0.165 and, more decisively, $0.175; failure to do so risks short-lived rallies or bull traps.
A death cross — a bearish crossover of moving averages — remains a clear downside risk that could turn rebounds into transient moves. If buyers do successfully regain those resistances, an extended multi-stage rally toward $0.35–$0.50 is cited as a plausible technical target, though such an outcome would depend on broader market drivers.
Market implications focus on risk management and flow persistence, with short-term traders using the listed support and resistance bands to define risk, while treasuries and institutional allocators monitor spot flow resilience versus continued large-holder exits. Macro drivers — notably Bitcoin’s trajectory and potential structured inflows tied to HBAR-focused products — will influence whether these early clues evolve into a confirmed trend change.
HBAR’s 6% decline exposed short-term weakness, but three converging clues — improving momentum on lower timeframes, spot accumulation, and defended support levels — leave open the possibility of a rebound.
