Dogecoin fell to $0.1226 after a technical breakdown that traders tied to year‑end selling and concentrated supply. The move pushed DOGE below a key $0.1248 floor and intensified downside pressure for a token already exhibiting weak liquidity and elevated derivatives exposure.
Above‑average trading surge: 857 million DOGE, volume up 157% over normal levels, signaling active selling rather than a thin‑market blip. Large holders distributed about 150 million DOGE across five days, a pattern that neutralized small‑scale buy attempts and sustained the downtrend.
Open interest remained above $1.5 billion, indicating persistent futures positioning even as the spot market weakened. That mix — concentrated spot supply and substantial derivatives exposure — raises the odds of continued volatility while liquidity remains constrained into the year end.
The breach beneath $0.1248 marked a decisive technical failure and put DOGE inside a descending channel characterized by consecutive lower highs.
Dogecoin trading and on‑chain signals
The token traded below the 100‑hour simple moving average (SMA). A simple moving average averages prices over a specified time window. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sat near 37, reflecting oversold momentum; the Relative Strength Index measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. The MACD showed momentum divergence, a condition in which moving averages indicate weakening trend strength; the MACD is a momentum indicator that compares moving averages to highlight trend shifts.
Market structure highlights a short‑range demand pocket at $0.122–$0.123 and primary resistance near $0.1270. Failure to hold current levels would target roughly $0.118, where previous demand pockets and the lower channel boundary converge. Technical observers note a possible double bottom near $0.12, but a decisive recovery would require reclaiming the $0.1450 zone to shift the outlook materially from cautious to constructive.
The confluence of year‑end selling, whale distribution and stretched technical indicators leaves Dogecoin vulnerable to further downside.
