TL;DR
- Polymarket’s Trade Volumes: In July, Polymarket achieved record trade volumes, surpassing $116.4 million, driven by anticipation around the upcoming US presidential election. This exceeded its previous highest month in June.
- Political Betting: Traders have collectively wagered $263.5 million on predicting the winning candidate for the November 4 election. Former President Donald Trump is favored with a 69% chance of victory.
- Trump’s Crypto Stance: Despite previously criticizing Bitcoin, Trump will speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. His evolving support for cryptocurrencies aligns with voters’ sentiments.
Polymarket, the decentralized (DeFi) predictions platform, has recently achieved remarkable trade volumes driven by the anticipation surrounding the upcoming United States presidential election. In the first half of July, Polymarket recorded an impressive $116.4 million in trading volume, surpassing its previous highest month of $111.5 million in June.
Political traders have collectively placed an astounding $263.5 million in bets, predicting the winning candidate for the US election scheduled for November 4. As of the latest data, the odds favor former President Donald Trump with a 69% chance of victory, followed by current President Joe Biden at 19%.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds 6% of the bets, while former First Lady Michelle Obama is trailing with only 2%. Polymarket has seen a total of $471.9 million in wagers across different events this year, including politics, finance, sports, and cryptocurrencies.
Traders looking to bet on American political events have found Polymarket to be their top choice. It’s worth mentioning that Polymarket is not accessible to US-based traders at the moment.
Polymarket recently hit a major achievement by wrapping up a $70 million Series B funding round. The round was spearheaded by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund, with key players like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also joining in.
This infusion of capital underscores the growing interest in prediction markets and their potential impact on information dissemination.
Prediction Markets: A Technological Manifestation of Democracy
Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, recently highlighted the significance of prediction markets. He stated:
“Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy. They take free markets and free speech as inputs and output truth. In an age when centralized control of information is a systemic risk, prediction markets offer a way of cutting through misleading narratives and viewing the unvarnished truth.”
Trump’s Crypto Stance and Upcoming Bitcoin Conference
Former President Donald Trump, despite previously labeling Bitcoin as a “scam,” is set to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. His commitment to attend the event remains unwavering even after surviving an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13.
David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and one of the event’s organizers, has verified that Trump will be participating and assured attendees that the former president is in high spirits.
Trump’s changing position on cryptocurrencies is quite remarkable. On June 14, he announced that he would put an end to the Biden administration’s “war on crypto” if elected president.
His newfound support for the crypto industry aligns with the sentiments of many voters. According to a Harris Poll survey, one in three US voters considers a candidate’s position on cryptocurrencies before making their voting decision.
Furthermore, a recent study carried out by the prominent crypto investment company Paradigm shows that Trump is receiving strong backing from the crypto community for the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Polymarket’s record trade volumes and Trump’s engagement with the crypto space underscore the growing intersection of politics, prediction markets, and digital assets. As the election draws closer, traders and enthusiasts alike eagerly await the outcome and its impact on the crypto landscape.
