The weekly prediction market volume has broken a new all-time high. It surpassed $2 billion dollars recently, marking a milestone for the industry. Polymarket has regained its lead over its competitor Kalshi after eight weeks. This data comes from a detailed Dune Analytics dashboard, which monitors the sector’s activity.
The sector is experiencing massive growth in user activity. Polymarket registered a volume of $1 billion dollars. It is closely followed by Kalshi with $950 million. Kalshi had led the market thanks to the start of the NFL season in August. However, Polymarket regained the top spot. It did so coinciding with beta tests for its US application. Other players like Limitless are also growing, reaching $21.9 million. Interestingly, sports betting generated $414.7 million, surpassing political markets ($322.6 million) despite the proximity of the November elections.
Context and Significance of the Event This milestone demonstrates the growing mainstream adoption of prediction markets. The sector is gaining greater public awareness. Growth is facilitated by a more flexible federal regulatory environment in the US. Both main platforms received “no-action letters” from the CFTC this year. Kalshi obtained it in May and Polymarket in September. This gave them the green light to operate with US users, although some state regulators still present legal challenges.
Are we looking at billion-dollar valuations in the new digital economy?
The interest is not just from users, but also from institutional investors. Company valuations have skyrocketed. Kalshi closed a $300 million Series D round, valuing the company at $5 billion. Giants like a16z, Sequoia, and Coinbase participated. Meanwhile, Polymarket received a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). This raised its valuation to $9 billion. These figures reflect institutional confidence in the long-term potential of the prediction economy.
Conclusion and Future Outlook The sector looks to the future with great optimism. A Certuity report estimates the market could reach $95.5 billion by 2035. Meanwhile, users are speculating about the launch of Polymarket’s native token. Sources suggest it will likely not happen in 2025, but rather next year. This has not stopped airdrop farmers. They have become more sophisticated to bypass conditions and secure their share of the growing weekly prediction market volume.
