Dogecoin surged sharply following the debut of the first DOGE ETF in the United States. The REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) began trading on September 18, and in its first sessions, it triggered a gain of nearly 12%. The increase in trading volume —40% higher than early 2025— suggests a shift in market appetite, with implications for traders and treasuries tracking capital flows.
ETF Launch and Market Reaction
The DOJE is the first offering to provide regulated exposure to Dogecoin without requiring direct custody of the asset. The product began trading under the DOJE ticker and is operated by REX Shares and Osprey Funds.
The expectation of broader institutional accessibility acted as a catalyst for the initial rally. At the open, DOGE prices rose around 12%, and trading volumes accelerated —up to 40% above early 2025 levels—, a dynamic viewed as a signal of changing market preferences.
Regulatory Landscape and Outlook
The regulatory environment remains a key factor. The SEC is still reviewing additional applications: Bitwise received an extension on its decision until November 12, 2025, while Grayscale continues its process to convert a trust into a listed product (GDOG). The new listing environment and SEC rules could either accelerate or slow future launches.
Projections depend on flows into the ETF. Analysts at TipRanks estimate that, with moderate inflows, the price could rise to $0.35 by Q1 2026, although this scenario depends on the magnitude and persistence of the inflows. Other more aggressive forecasts circulate in specialized media but remain subject to assumptions of sustained institutional adoption.
The DOJE debut alters several decision vectors for market participants. A potential increase in inflows from traditional managers and a higher correlation between DOGE and traditional financial products are expected, with the potential for greater volatility amid large flows. Upcoming SEC decisions, particularly the one expected for Bitwise on November 12, 2025, will shape the timeline for new altcoin ETFs.
For treasuries and traders, the immediate operational takeaway is clear: greater availability of a regulated product reduces access friction, but does not eliminate market or execution risks. The initial buying pressure could reverse if flows are not sustained or if the SEC introduces additional conditions; tracking volumes and the regulatory calendar will be crucial as the community awaits the Bitwise ruling and monitors potential ETFs for other altcoins.
