Bitcoin supply held by short-term investors (STH) that are currently at a loss has reached its highest level since the collapse of FTX, according to on-chain data. This move has left approximately 2.8 million BTC “underwater”, placing the market facing a significant resistance test. The outcome will fundamentally depend on how the price reacts around these holders’ cost basis, set at roughly $92,000.
Short-term holders (STH) are addresses that acquired their bitcoins in the last 155 days, a definition that allows distinguishing the behavior of recent investors from that of long-term holders. According to on-chain data, 2.8 million BTC are now at a loss, a significant portion of the circulating supply that reflects a pronounced market correction.
The deterioration is distributed unevenly across different investor groups: some STH face losses close to 12.79%, those who entered most recently record a pullback of 3.46%, and those who bought a month ago have accumulated a 7.71% decline. Particularly affected are the so-called “newbie whales” — STH with more than 1,000 BTC — who have gone from showing $10.1 billion in unrealized gains to accounting for roughly $6.9 billion in latent losses.
Bitcoin’s price climbed to $126,000 before experiencing a drop of approximately 23%, breaching the $109,000 support and sitting near $103,500 at the time of recording. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis — the weighted average acquisition price of this group — stands around $92,000, a level that appears as a critical reference.
On-chain analysis of the Short-Term Holder Bitcoin Supply in Loss
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for STH, which compares the realized value when selling to the acquisition value, is near the breakeven point according to Glassnode data. When SOPR falls below 1, it traditionally indicates selling at a loss and risk of capitulation. Its proximity to 1 currently suggests a temporary balance between selling pressure and buyers willing to hold their positions.
In contrast with STH fragility, the supply held by long-term holders (LTH) has continued to expand, a recurring pattern in cycles where accumulation by experienced holders moderates the impact of price declines. Additionally, despite the accumulated loss since the November 2021 peak — estimated at $1.8 trillion — some activity indicators show resilience, such as Solana’s TVL which surpassed $10 billion.
Among practical implications, a persistent increase in STH at a loss can intensify volatility and create episodes of compressed liquidity. Users and risk managers should monitor the evolution of SOPR, the concentration of large positions in STH and, especially, the price reaction around the STH cost basis of $92,000.
