The same calendar weeks that saw parts of the federal government close also marked the lowest dollar price of Bitcoin in two separate bear cycles. That overlap matters to corporate treasurers, spot traders and derivatives desks because it removes the usual stream of official numbers and raises price swings. The result is wider volatility and harder-to-trust models during shutdown periods.
The clearest case ran from 22 December 2018 through 25 January 2019, a 35-day halt that matched Bitcoin’s low near $3,100. The 2018–19 closure lasted 35 days and cost the economy about $11 billion. Bitcoin fell roughly 80 percent from its 2017 top and touched $3,100 in mid-December 2018.
A shutdown starts when Congress fails to pass spending bills, non-essential offices lock their doors, and most data releases stop. CNBC warns that “a shutdown would suspend the collection and release of most government economic data.” Without those numbers, risk models lose inputs and treasury desks lose clarity.
In 2025 the standoff began on 1 October and lasted 14 days, sending about 900,000 staff members home. Bitcoin had already declined 28 percent, from $109,350 in January to $78,000 in February. Forecasters disagreed on what followed — Pantera saw $117,482 by August, while Wainwright projected $225,000 by year end.
What it means for institutions
Price swings grow wider when macro data vanish — perpetual futures and spot books see heavier flow. Meanwhile the algorithms that rely on official time series give off false signals once the series stop or get revised later.
Treasury teams must recheck cash buffers and derivative hedges because rate clues disappear. Repeated political gridlock nudges some firms toward Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset, widening the debate on whether BTC works as a “liquidity base.”
The 1 October 2025 shutdown and any later budget fights will determine how much macro data goes missing. Treasurers and traders will track the length of the halt and the scale of data revisions in the weeks ahead, guiding risk limits, hedge adjustments and liquidity plans.
