Citizens Bank expects Ether to reach $10,000 in the first quarter of 2026, a move the bank says is driven by fewer coins available to trade and a steady arrival of large buyers. The projected jump—about 225% above today’s level—matters for product managers, corporate treasuries and large investors assessing digital asset exposure and liquidity. The bank frames the outlook around tight supply conditions and accelerating institutional participation.
A large slice of Ethereum is locked away. After the network switched to Proof-of-Stake, about 35 million coins—roughly 40% of all Ether—sit in staking contracts where holders earn rewards but cannot sell quickly, reducing tradable float.
Institutions keep buying as exchange balances fall to nine-year lows. One Ether ETF took in $547 million in a single day, and combined Bitcoin-plus-Ether ETFs absorbed more than $900 million recently. Corporate treasuries—besides ETF sponsors—now hold about one in every ten Ether coins, a dynamic Citizens calls a “supply vacuum”.
Implications, examples and next steps
Adoption is set to broaden as more firms add Ether to reserves, with banks offering custody and staking services. Liquidity could thin further, meaning any large buy or sell order may move the price faster. Regulation will determine deployment speed, as predictable policy can accelerate institutional purchases, while compliance obligations—KYC, AML and custody—must be met before banks and fund managers list Ether as an asset.
Citizens highlighted strategy through SharpLink Gaming, labeled an “Ether Treasury Play”, setting a price target that would more than triple if SharpLink’s Ether holdings appreciate. The bank also maintains a longer-range view: $7,000 by the end of 2026 and a possible $20,000 before 2030. Even the Ethereum Foundation sold 10,000 Ether to pay for research and grants, reflecting how organizations are actively managing holdings.
Key numbers underscore the thesis: a $10,000 target by Q1 2026, about 40% of supply illiquid with 35 million coins staked, and ETFs plus treasuries holding 10.31% of supply and adding, with SharpLink offering a real-world example of treasury use. Next checkpoint: Citizens will watch exchange balances and daily ETF inflows to assess whether the path to $10,000 remains on track through the first quarter of 2026.
