The altcoin derivatives market is entering the last week of September showing a dangerous imbalance, with billions of dollars in leveraged positions at risk. Specifically, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and the Avantis (AVNT) token are at the epicenter of this tension. Analysis of liquidation maps suggests that any sharp price movement could trigger extreme volatility, wiping out both short and long positions.
Details of the Massive Imbalance in Derivatives
Market nervousness is palpable after more than $200 billion was wiped from the total market capitalization, dragging numerous altcoins down. In this context, short-term traders have adopted a strongly bearish sentiment, which has skyrocketed the volume of potential short liquidations. However, the risk is not one-sided.
Ethereum (ETH) leads the list with the largest potential liquidation volume. The 7-day liquidation map reveals a massive accumulation of short positions (bets on a price drop). If the price of ETH experiences a rebound and reclaims the $4,900 level, an astonishing $10 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated. On the other hand, if selling pressure continues and the price falls towards $3,560, long position liquidations (bets on a price rise) would “only” reach $900 million, highlighting the clear bearish bias of the current leverage.
Solana (SOL) ranks second in this risk ranking. Following a significant drop in its price, bearish sentiment among derivatives traders has become overwhelming. If SOL manages to rebound and reach $250 this week, more than $2.5 billion in short positions would be liquidated. In contrast, a drop below $190 would “only” liquidate $215 million in long positions, again showing a strong imbalance that favors the bears.
Avantis (AVNT): The Opposite Risk After a 600% Rally
Unlike ETH and SOL, the case of Avantis (AVNT) presents an opposite risk, centered on long positions. Although its liquidation volume does not reach billions, its inclusion is vital due to its enormous recent popularity. According to CoinMarketCap, AVNT has captured the market’s attention following its simultaneous listing on three major exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, and Binance), which propelled its price by more than 600% in September alone.
This explosive growth has led derivatives traders to continue betting on further gains, accumulating long positions. Here, the danger is a correction. The liquidation map shows that if AVNT corrects and falls to the $1 zone, approximately $60 million in long positions could be liquidated. This risk is exacerbated by profit-taking; on-chain data already confirms that an AVNT whale has begun to sell with profits exceeding 700%. If this profit-taking spreads, leveraged long holders face significant risk.
Implications: The Double-Edged Sword of Volatility
The current situation highlights the true danger of leverage in a volatile market: cascading liquidations. For Ethereum and Solana, the immediate risk is a “short squeeze.” If positive news, such as the recent ETP approvals benefiting SOL, drives the price upward, short sellers will be forced to buy back their positions to cover losses. This event forces a massive buy-in, further accelerating the price’s vertical ascent.
In AVNT’s case, the risk is a “long squeeze.” The beginning of widespread profit-taking can push the price down enough to start liquidating long positions. These automatic liquidations add more selling pressure to the market, which in turn liquidates more long positions in a vicious cycle that accelerates the drop. In both scenarios, the result is extreme volatility that can catch investors by surprise.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
The crypto market has entered the last week of September with massive losses from liquidations, reaching $1.67 billion in the last 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass. The potential liquidation figures for ETH and SOL show that traders are betting heavily against the market, but they are exposed to an extremely painful rebound if sentiment changes.
Meanwhile, the case of AVNT is a classic reminder that parabolic rises often conclude with severe corrections, especially when leverage is high. Investors must closely monitor these liquidation levels, as the volatility at September’s close is shaping up to be highly unpredictable and will set the tone for the start of the fourth quarter.
