Global money creation surged to a 35-year high in 2025 with M2 around 112 trillion dollars, but Bitcoin’s rallies have been brief and often fade back to starting levels. Observers question why this wave of liquidity has not lifted the crypto market, even as on-chain indicators suggest significant capital is ready to deploy. The dynamics of policy easing, on-chain flows, timing lags and shifting risk appetite frame Bitcoin’s mixed reactions.
During 2025 the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its policy rate three times reaching 3.6 % in November, the Federal Reserve trimmed 0.25 % in mid-September, and the Bank of Korea and the central bank of the Philippines also cut, while traders saw a 96.7 % chance of further October cuts as talk of a worldwide easing wave spread. Global M2 rose to an estimated 112 trillion dollars, but that broad number does not show how much cash reaches crypto. A clearer sign sits on chain: ERC-20 stable tokens alone top 160 billion dollars plus total stablecoin circulation has reached 265 billion dollars, a figure that measures money ready for trading or DeFi.
Bitcoin swung both ways: on 16 November 2025 a technical “death cross” formed and the price quickly fell 25 %, after the Fed cut in September it rebounded 8 %, and by the end of November it traded above 91 000 dollars as traders bet on more easing. These sharp but brief moves show Bitcoin reacts in a jumpy, non linear way.
Why the surge in money has not lifted Bitcoin for long
M2 counts deposits, not the speed or destination of the next dollar, and analysts note that not all freshly printed liquidity reaches speculative assets right away. On-chain data show that crypto capital follows its own calendar, not the calendar of traditional money.
Studies find a lag: after M2 rises, Bitcoin often needs 56 – 110 days before it posts a lasting move, so the current wave of easing may still be inside that waiting window.
Mood and risk appetite shift fast. In December the market once priced a 90 % chance of another cut, weeks later the odds dropped to 40 %, and each swing triggered profit-taking but also short-lived outflows from risk assets.
Central banks do not move as one and geopolitical headlines strike at random, so a sudden currency move or trade headline can push Bitcoin up or down on its own, even if the global easing story stays the same.
Bitcoin now trades more like a mainstream asset as institutional adoption has tightened its link to real interest rates and to general macro sentiment, meaning it no longer trades on its own island.
Bitcoin’s flat line against the backdrop of the biggest monetary expansion in 35 years does not signal failure; it reflects a tangle of broad money totals, on chain flows, calendar lags, shifting mood and diverging policies.
