The consensus that long-term holders back a Solana price reversion faces strong qualifications. One segment shows technical and adoption skepticism, while institutional capital and strategic accumulators take advantage of corrections. This article examines both sides and what it means for product, risk, and compliance.
Several technical indicators and on‑chain metrics explain why a portion of long-term holders doubts a sustained recovery. The token has repeatedly hit key resistances around $168.79 and $200; one of those rejections preceded a 22% drop in six days, and another recent reaction triggered a 5% pullback near $195. Momentum tools show weakness: the Average Directional Index (ADX) and continuous red bars on the Awesome Oscillator point to a strengthening downtrend.
At the capital flow and adoption level, data used by analysts raise warning signs. New wallet addresses on the network have fallen 15% since mid‑September, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) registered negative values like −0.06, indicating net capital outflows despite occasional price rebounds. The Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi has pulled back, and active addresses have shown sustained declines since late May. Technical analysts warn that selling pressure is not exhausted and that bullish confirmation would require closes above $216–$222.
Solana: technical signals and on‑chain metrics that feed skepticism
Against that skepticism, there is a strong current of institutional accumulation. Solana-linked ETFs have received significant inflows since their launch; together, funds like BSOL and GSOL have attracted $351 million, with daily inflows reaching around $8 million. The listing of options for these ETFs on the New York Stock Exchange provides hedging tools and a route for price discovery by institutional investors.
On‑chain, not all long-term holders are selling. Large positions have increased on dips, especially around support levels near $185, suggesting selective buys by actors seeking medium‑long‑term exposure. This behavior contrasts with retail selling and supports the thesis of those who value the network’s technical features, such as operational efficiency and reduced transaction costs.
Institutional research adds context to the accumulation narrative. Analytics firms have highlighted an increasingly diversified on‑chain economy that, according to those studies, can underpin long-term value through activity and fee generation even in adverse market phases.
The market of long-term holders in Solana is not monolithic. Technical skepticism and institutional accumulation signals coexist. For product and compliance teams, monitoring liquidity, activity metrics, and flows into regulated vehicles (ETFs and derivatives) will be decisive.
