TL;DR
- Donald Trump leads with a 57.9% chance of winning the election in Polymarket, compared to 41.8% for Kamala Harris.
- Bets on the election outcome on Polymarket have reached over $1.92 billion.
- National polls by FiveThirtyEight show a slight lead for Harris, although analysts point to a tendency to underestimate Trump.
The odds of Donald Trump winning the upcoming US presidential election have increased significantly on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform based on Ethereum.
According to the latest data, Trump has a 57.9% chance of winning, beating Kamala Harris, who has a 41.8% chance. This change has caught the attention of the market, which has accumulated more than $1.92 billion in betting volume on the 2024 election result.
The original source of this information is Polymarket, known for its use of cryptocurrencies to make predictions based on the probability of different events.
This growth in Trump’s odds represents a significant shift, as Harris was leading the betting on the platform for much of last month. However, the former president regained ground earlier this month and has consolidated his lead, widening the gap in recent days.
Despite the increased odds in Trump’s favor on Polymarket, traditional polls paint a different picture. According to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, Kamala Harris still holds a slim lead at 48.5% to Trump’s 46.1%.
However, Bernstein analysts point out that these polls tend to underestimate actual support for Trump, as has happened in past elections.
Analysis of Trends and Factors
One factor that has sparked interest is Polymarket’s possible leaning toward Trump due to his endorsement of cryptocurrencies.
While some suggest that bias could be present, analysts highlight that most users tend to base their bets on calculated odds rather than reflecting their political preferences. Furthermore, Trump has shown strong support for blockchain technology, which could sway bettors in favor of the Republican candidate.
On the other hand, Harris has taken a more regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies. In a recent proposal, she highlighted the need for a framework that protects African-American men who invest in crypto assets, as part of a strategy to encourage wealth creation in this community. Her position reflects a more conservative approach compared to Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Trump has also leveraged his popularity within the crypto world to launch related projects. He recently announced that World Liberty Financial, a DeFi protocol backed by himself, sold over 610 million tokens in its initial public offering. This initiative strengthens his ties to the crypto sector and could influence the support he receives on platforms like Polymarket.
While traditional polls and decentralized platforms paint a mixed picture on the candidates’ odds, the Trump campaign continues to gain ground in the betting arena, supported by its focus on financial innovation and blockchain technology.
