Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable drop, trading below the $102,000 level during the Wall Street open this Thursday. This decline aligns with widespread nervousness in the U.S. stock markets. In an analytical twist, investment bank JPMorgan, through its lead analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, suggests that the Bitcoin undervalued against gold scenario defines the current market situation.
BTC’s price action showed daily losses approaching 2%. The leading cryptocurrency thus joined the downturns of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Markets reacted to troubling macroeconomic data. A report from the employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas confirmed over 153,000 job cuts last month. This represents the highest October total since 2003. Additionally, a surge in U.S. household debt added to the financial strain.
This weak economic data has intensified speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next moves. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of an interest rate cut in December increased to 69% at the time of writing. Nonetheless, trading firm QCP Capital warned that a cut is not guaranteed. They indicate that a pause in monetary easing would keep the dollar firm and credit conditions tight.
Can JPMorgan’s New Stance Reverse the Massive ETF Outflows?
On the other hand, QCP Capital noted that for a lasting Bitcoin recovery, the return of institutional buying is necessary. They referenced the continuous outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These funds registered outflows of nearly $900 million in just the first three days of the week. The $100,000 psychological level now represents the key support line. However, traders are also watching an open “gap” on CME futures, a potential bearish target located near $92,000.
Amidst this uncertainty, the bullish signal of the day came from JPMorgan. The bank drastically reversed its stance from late 2024, when they considered BTC to be $36,000 “too high” compared to gold. Now, Panigirtzoglou wrote that Bitcoin undervalued against gold is the new reality, estimating it is $68,000 “too low” in that comparison. This analysis changes the perspective on the value-refuge asset economy.
