In November 2025, Donald Trump announced a “tariff dividend” of $2,000 per person, generating an immediate reaction in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $106,000, while other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and XRP also recorded correlated gains. This proposal raises questions about liquidity, inflation and the direction of flows toward digital assets that affect investors, product teams and compliance.
The proposal represents a macroeconomic experiment with multiple transmission channels to cryptocurrency markets. The initial effect was clearly bullish, but the sustainability of the move will depend on the payment mechanics implemented. According to cited analyses, if the dividend materializes as direct checks —similar to the 2020 payments— it could mean an estimated liquidity injection of between $300–$400 billion annually into the economy, potentially stimulating allocation toward higher-risk assets.
In contrast, if implemented as gradual tax relief (for example, tax cuts or exemptions), the impact on cryptocurrencies would be more diluted and could favor saving or debt reduction instead of speculation. It is important to note that a tariff is essentially an import tax that raises the price of imported goods and tends to affect domestic purchasing power.
Impact of the tariff dividend on the crypto market
The source of the funds —the tariffs themselves— adds a paradox: tariffs generally raise prices and generate inflationary pressure, which on one hand could reinforce the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” and trigger a rotation toward cryptocurrencies as a store of value; on the other hand, higher prices for goods reduce discretionary spending and risk appetite, which can drain liquidity from volatile assets. Moreover, prediction markets such as Polymarket have shown skepticism about the arrival of direct payments in the short term, which introduces relevant uncertainty for price formation.
The next operational milestone will be clarity from the Treasury and Congress on the distribution mechanism —whether direct payments or fiscal measures— which will determine whether the impact on cryptocurrencies will be a rapid wave of liquidity or a gradual and limited effect. Meanwhile, markets will continue to recalibrate positions in the face of this uncertainty.
