The United Kingdom recorded GDP growth of 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, notably lower than the 0.3% in the previous quarter and below City forecasts (0.2%) and the Bank of England (0.3%), according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The figure matters for investors, product teams and compliance because of its impact on monetary policy, liquidity and business risk.
The quarterly figure hid monthly weaknesses: September showed a contraction of -0.1%. A material factor was the cyberattack against Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which caused a -28.6% drop in vehicle production in September and reduced monthly GDP by 0.17 percentage points and quarterly growth by approximately 0.06 points, according to the published estimate.
The headline masks late-quarter softness and sectoral divergence, setting the stage for a closer look at monthly dynamics, one-off shocks and demand-side resilience.
Beyond the one-off shock, domestic demand remained contained: private consumption grew only 0.2% in the quarter and was 0.7% above the same period last year. The services sector contributed a moderate expansion of 0.2%, driven by business rents, live events and retail; meanwhile, the production sector contracted 0.5%, suggesting a broader industrial slowdown even after discounting the effect of the automotive incident.
Context and impact: UK GDP and triggering factors
“Consumer and business confidence remains the missing ingredient”, said Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, on the persistent weakness of confidence.
The set of figures complicates the Bank of England’s decision between keeping rates or starting cuts. The weaker economy, combined with unemployment at 5% and contracting employment growth, has fueled expectations of a rate cut in December among several analysts. For compliance and financial products, two operational risks stand out: exposure to disruptions in the digital supply chain and increased sensitivity of capital flows to macro news.
Next milestones will shape the path of rates, access to credit and market liquidity: markets will monitor announcements from the Bank of England and the budget of Chancellor Rachel Reeves, scheduled after the data, alongside related monitoring of monthly production and business confidence.
