The Bitcoin market is facing intense selling pressure. More than $104 billion in BTC held for years has moved since 2024. This event coincides with the recent price drop from $126,000 down to the $100,000 zone. This long-term holder distribution (LTH) has ignited a heated debate over who is selling, according to analysts like Alex Thorn of Galaxy.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, highlighted impactful figures fueling this narrative. He noted that 470,000 BTC older than five years changed hands in 2025 alone. When combined with movements from 2024, the figure exceeds $104 billion. This represents nearly half of all circulating Bitcoin of that age. Thorn labeled this distribution as “enormous” and “unprecedented” over the last two years.
This massive movement raises questions about Bitcoin’s core philosophy. Troy Cross, a professor at Reed College, suggested that if “OGs” (original adopters) are truly exiting the market, this challenges Bitcoin’s founding ethos. It would imply these early believers now view the asset like a traditional IPO-style investment. However, not all on-chain analysts agree with this pessimistic interpretation.
Are the “OGs” Really the Ones Selling, or Is It Panic from Newer Traders?
Analyst ‘Checkmate’ and Blockstream CEO Adam Back argue that the term “OG dumping” is being misused. Back stated that the charts “tell a very different story”. On-chain data broken down by Checkmate shows that the majority of revived supply in 2024 and 2025 comes from younger coins. Specifically, 0.7 million BTC was 6 months to 1 year old, and 0.65 million BTC was 1 to 2 years old. This suggests it is recent-cycle traders locking in profits, not the true long-term believers.
The asset’s economy is complicated by a “two-front selling war.” Data from CryptoQuant reveals that spot ETF investors are joining the pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a cumulative net outflow of nearly $21 billion over seven days. This is the largest outflow in six weeks, turning the institutional demand engine into a source of supply. With ETFs no longer absorbing LTH selling, the market’s near-term bias could remain tilted to the downside.
