Aptos APT underperforms the broad crypto market, trading with low turnover and below key moving averages. The token now changes hands at 75.9% under its all-time high of $19.84, keeping traders and fund managers in a wait-and-see stance. Steady token unlocks are set to add supply while major firms have yet to buy enough to lift the price.
APT launched with one billion tokens and a large portion remains locked, so the market broadly expects fresh supply to hit. The 2025 unlock calendar features large blocks—over $1 billion in October, $513 million in September, and $2.68 billion in November. Smaller cliffs also loom, including $50.78 million in July and 11.31 million tokens on 12 June 2025, keeping both traders and liquidity desks cautious.
Brief 4%–17% pops on headlines—such as a $500 million BUIDL fund or a new protocol launch—have repeatedly stalled at the 20-, 50-, or 200-day moving averages and faded, reinforcing the “just watch” mood.
Token unlocks and supply overhang
Chain data flicker: a single day in May 2024 recorded 115 million transactions, yet weekly volume still fell 28%. Heavy use does not stick.
Aptos has landed institutional wins: more than $540 million in real-world assets sit on-chain, TVL has risen 1,298% since 2023, and names like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton test integrations. Still, the project faces an “identity crisis”: the tech moves faster than the story, and everyday buyers stay away.
Prices are swinging wider, with sellers clustering around each unlock, which hurts liquidity and bid-ask spreads. Value remains capped even alongside big partners until the narrative or net buying changes. Meanwhile, product and compliance teams must manage custody and KYC/AML as large token flows move on and off the network. Leaders need clear messaging that turns on-chain metrics—RWAs, TVL, wallet counts—into trust signals for investors.
Next up is the release of 11.31 million APT on 12 June 2025. How that sale affects market depth and price will show whether institutional use is strong enough to absorb new supply and turn the current “just watch” stance into durable bids.
