Arthur Hayes has revived discussion of a $3.4 million Bitcoin price but presents it strictly as a limit case contingent on a dollar collapse. He instead emphasizes nearer, aggressive targets that shape how traders, treasuries and fund managers size risk. His thesis links the next BTC rally to macro shifts pushing capital out of cash and bonds and into crypto.
Hayes works with two milestones: $250k by late-2025 and $1 million by 2028. He concedes the $3.4 million figure is a theoretical upper bound, not a promise, and warns the path higher may include pullbacks to $100k or even $70k before the next leg up.
The forecast ties Bitcoin’s next rally to capital rotation away from cash plus bonds and toward crypto. His frame rests on three drivers: the Federal Reserve adopts yield curve control (YCC), a second Trump term loosens fiscal policy and capital flees a weakening dollar. Hayes adds that confirming Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors could accelerate a pivot to YCC.
The evolution of Bitcoin according to Hayes
Hayes argues that an expanding money supply could funnel liquidity into Bitcoin, where its fixed supply may drive prices higher. Still, he warns that interim corrections in the $100k–$70k range could trigger hedging from derivatives desks and corporate treasuries, forcing managers to reassess exposure.
If yield curve control (YCC) is introduced, it could weaken the traditional bond–crypto correlation and tilt multi-asset portfolios toward BTC. In that context, the 2025 and 2028 milestones become reference points for institutional allocation, guiding how positions are built and scaled.
Looking ahead, the coming quarters of monetary and fiscal data will test this thesis. Hayes keeps those 2025 and 2028 checkpoints in focus, advising that exposure be added gradually along those timelines while staying alert to sharp retracements.
