Bernstein says Circle will cope with lower interest rates because more people want USDC and the firm now earns money in more ways than just bond interest. The broker expects the number of USDC tokens to rise three fold to about 220 billion by the end of 2027, a shift that touches big investors, payment apps and compliance staff.
The central idea is that lower yields will be offset by a bigger reserve base and new fee lines, keeping overall income resilient while USDC adoption expands across markets and use cases.
Bernstein puts revenue growth at 47 percent a year through 2027 and sees the USDC supply growing 71 percent in the same stretch, giving the coin nearly one third of all stablecoins. The math starts with the view that U.S. Treasury yields will fall from 4.25 percent to about 3 percent by 2027; the drop hurts, yet a bigger pile of reserves cushions the blow.
What the numbers mean for Circle
Last year, 99 percent of Circle’s 1.7 billion in revenue came from Treasury bills. The mix is shifting — fees from cross chain transfers and the payment network rose from 1 percent of revenue in 2024 to 4 percent in the first half of 2025.
Bernstein lists three buffers — more coins in use, new fee lines and costs that grow slower than sales. A fresh law — the GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025 — sets federal rules for payment stablecoins and rewards issuers that keep cash besides Treasuries in the U.S. Circle already publishes daily reserve figures and third-party attestations — it gains an edge.
Bernstein rates the stock ‘Outperform’ and sets a 230 dollar price target after the June 5, 2025 IPO. The next thing to watch is whether USDC keeps grabbing share and whether new payment links turn into steady fee streams.
If reserves, fees and regulation evolve as outlined, Circle’s model can absorb lower yields while USDC adoption grows. The practical test is execution: sustained token growth, deeper payment integrations and continued compliance transparency.
