Bitcoin lost momentum around the 115,000-dollar zone, in a context where economic, technical, and sentiment factors converge. This dynamic affects large investors and treasuries, forcing a revision of the most optimistic forecasts. Signals point to greater caution in the short term.
Macro and Sentiment Factors
Doubts persist about the real impact of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Rate cuts are no longer automatically seen as stimulus, and some investors are reducing exposure to volatile assets amid the risk of an economic slowdown, which reduces liquidity and risk appetite in the crypto market.
Options markets show a growing demand for downside protection. The heavy put structure indicates that traders are buying hedges, a sign of caution and elevated short-term risk pricing.
Technical Levels and Market Flows
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Immediate resistance: 116,500 dollars
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Key support: 110,000 dollars
A break above 116,500 could reactivate the bullish trend, while losing 110,000 would open the door to broader corrections toward 100,000 dollars.
Capital flows from large investors show mixed signals. Initial inflows through ETFs drove the advance, but recent data shows outflows that reduce momentum, creating friction for new highs. At the same time, lower participation from large investors and the greater weight of retail activity increase volatility.
Upcoming Catalysts and Immediate Risks
Bitcoin’s reaction to U.S. employment data and the dollar index will be decisive:
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A weaker dollar could support gains.
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Weak employment data could accelerate Fed rate cuts and, paradoxically, increase risk aversion.
A failed breakdown below key technical levels could amplify selling and trigger a more pronounced correction.
Implications for Market Participants
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Liquidity: higher rotation between ETFs and spot markets can widen spreads and increase slippage.
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Treasury management: the heavy put structure reinforces the need to review hedges and risk policies.
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Derivatives traders: watch 116,500 dollars as a potential reversal trigger and 110,000 dollars as critical support for trend continuity.
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Regulatory risk: regulatory uncertainty continues to shape the entry and retention of large investors.
The critical support to watch is 110,000 dollars; a breach would tilt the balance toward deeper corrections. Upcoming U.S. employment data and expectations regarding Fed rate cuts will set the milestones for the next market phase, influencing risk appetite and price trajectory.
