Sentiment toward BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) stayed negative through September 2025, with options markets signaling caution. The one-year put-call skew turned positive in July and remained so, indicating traders consistently paid more for downside protection. This shift alerts institutional managers, product teams, and compliance desks tracking liquidity and risk in Bitcoin-linked vehicles.
The positive skew signaled that, from July onward, traders bought more puts than calls on IBIT, a posture that can be read as either hedging or straight short bets. The sustained demand for protection underscores a market preference for safety despite IBIT’s scale.
The ETF launched in January 2024 and pulled in heavy cash: on 17 June 2025 it held 631,962 BTC worth $65 billion and had gathered $50 billion of inflows since inception.
The sustained positive skew departs from the ETF’s early life, when record inflows helped keep Bitcoin’s link with regular assets tight.
IBIT on the decline: possible paths forward
Key points remain clear: the put-call skew has been positive since July 2025 without interruption for two months, IBIT held 631,962 BTC worth $65 billion on 17 June 2025, and year-to-date net inflows reached $6.96 billion to May 2025, with July revenue estimated at $187.2 million.
The monthly path of the put-call skew and IBIT net flows as the next data to watch, as these figures will indicate whether the bearish tilt deepens or fades and how institutions adjust their exposure and controls.
