Several market analysts are warning about Bitcoin bear market signals that may be emerging this November. Key indicators, such as accelerated selling by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and technical weakness, suggest that bullish momentum is waning. These trends are emerging despite favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Glassnode data shows that veteran investors have been consistently distributing their positions. This trend has intensified recently. Furthermore, this selling pressure coincides with negative readings on the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator. Analyst Maartunn noted that LTHs might be distributing into weakness, which is a bearish sign. This selling is combined with outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
The concern broadens when looking at Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets. Data from Wintermute indicates an asymmetric relationship with the Nasdaq-100. Bitcoin tends to fall more sharply when the Nasdaq pulls back but reacts only weakly to rallies. This imbalance, according to Jasper de Maere of Wintermute, usually signals market exhaustion, not strength.
Has Bitcoin Lost Its Key Macro Support?
Adding to this caution is a notable technical failure. For the first time since the previous cycle low, Bitcoin has failed to bounce off its 50-week moving average. Analyst Brett highlighted on social media that on three previous occasions, a bounce off this level preceded strong rallies. This failure to hold support suggests a potential long-term trend reversal.
These bearish signals are particularly concerning because they are occurring in an environment of government stimulus. They also coincide with Federal Reserve rate cuts. Both factors are typically bullish catalysts for the economy and risk assets. However, Bitcoin’s inability to respond positively to these stimuli reinforces the Bitcoin bear market signals and growing downside risk.
