Ethereum’s price entered November under pressure after a rough month, yet several on-chain and historical metrics suggest the token may be positioning for a rebound. With long-term holders trimming exposure and whales quietly accumulating, the stage could be set for a recovery if key levels hold.
Ethereum’s recent price action reflects a market caught between caution and anticipation. In the past week, ETH slipped by around 3 % even while some short-term optimism entered the market. The month of October ended in a loss of approximately 6.8 %. Yet remarkably, historical data show that November has been a strong month for Ethereum — averaging close to 6.9 % gains over the last eight years and even hitting a near-47 % surge in 2024. This suggests that despite the recent weakness, there may be favourable seasonal tailwinds at play.
Weak hands exit as accumulation and historical patterns align for ETH rebound
On-chain indicators add nuance to this setup. The holder accumulation ratio — measuring how many long-term addresses are adding coins vs. reducing them — recently fell to 29.79 %, one of its lowest levels in recent weeks. This shows large-scale holders may be pausing or trimming positions, which often precedes reduced selling pressure and a cleaner base from which a rebound can begin. At the same time, wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH added around 1.64 million ETH through October, signalling that whales may be taking the opposite stance: accumulating quietly while smaller holders exit.
Technically, ETH is forming what analysts describe as a hidden bullish divergence: price made higher lows while the RSI indicator made lower lows — often a subtle signal that sellers are losing strength even if the price isn’t yet moving higher. The cost-basis distribution shows a heavy accumulation zone between US$ 3,649 and US$ 3,686, offering concrete support. If price holds above approximately US$ 3,679 and that support band remains intact, targets near US$ 3,899 to US$ 4,132 become feasible. A decisive break upward could lend momentum to this rebound thesis.
However, risks abound. If price falls below the US$ 3,650 zone, the bullish narrative could unravel and open the door to deeper correction toward roughly US$ 3,500. Macro factors (interest-rate policy, institutional flows) and weaker network usage could derail the rebound plan. The divergence and historical tailwinds are helpful, but they don’t guarantee a recovery.
In summary: Ethereum sits in a live battle zone. The combination of historical favourable seasonality, on-chain signals of accumulation, and defined support zones suggest a rebound is possible — but only if those levels hold and fresh catalyst emerges.
