The current market shows apparent calm, but the behavior of XRP long-term investors reveals significant underlying tensions. Although the asset trades steadily near $2.20, recent data from analytics firm Glassnode indicates a massive distribution of tokens. This internal divergence could alter the bullish trend that the asset has maintained over the past week.
According to the latest on-chain data, there is a clear division in market participant strategies. On one hand, short-term holders have increased their positions, showing immediate confidence. Specifically, wallets holding for one week to one month increased their funds from 4.97% to 6.99% since mid-November.
However, the worrying metric comes from the oldest participants in the ecosystem. Since November 23, net selling by this group jumped drastically. Figures indicate that sales volume went from 54 to 84 million XRP, representing a 56% increase in just two days.
Can recent accumulation counter the massive historical liquidation?
This distribution pattern is not an isolated or random event in the asset’s recent history. A similar selling behavior was observed between November 16 and 18. On that occasion, selling pressure caused a rapid 12% price drop, taking the value from $2.22 down to $1.96.
Furthermore, the NUPL indicator, which measures net unrealized profit and loss, offers crucial psychological context. Currently, this metric hovers around the 0.50 level, sitting in the “belief-denial” zone. Historically, when the blockchain records these levels of unrealized gains, investors tend to secure profits to avoid potential losses, creating local price tops.
Technical analysis suggests the asset is at a dangerous crossroads if institutional selling persists. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains just above zero but below a descending trendline. This signals that inflows are not strong enough to absorb the supply generated by recent massive sales.
If selling pressure continues to intensify and the price loses the key support of $2.06, the scenario would turn bearish. In this case, the asset could quickly descend to $1.81 in the short term, revisiting a previous local floor. Therefore, defending this level is vital for bulls.
Nevertheless, there is still a technical possibility to reverse this negative outlook if demand increases. To stay in the safe zone, the price needs a clean close above $2.24. Achieving this would open the path toward higher targets like $2.58 and $2.69, invalidating the sellers’ current bearish thesis.
