Bitcoin remains near a key resistance zone at $117,800 – $121,300, where the price reaction will define the immediate bias. Flows into Bitcoin ETFs emerge as a potential bullish driver, within a context where the interaction between technical levels and the demand for spot and futures products impacts institutional investors and market liquidity.
Technical resistance and the role of ETFs
The price faces a barrier at $117,800 – $121,300 and must recover to restore the bullish bias, according to data from Trading News. The dynamics in this zone will be decisive in confirming either continuity or a correction towards support.
ETFs have shown episodes of capital inflow in 2025, with several days of significant flows. On one occasion, the peak was $2.5 billion when Bitcoin reached $111,000, while BlackRock reported periods with almost $7 billion in inflows in 2025, according to cited records. These flows could act as a catalyst if sustained near resistance.
The product structure matters: spot ETFs hold physical Bitcoin and replicate the asset’s real price, while futures ETFs do so via contracts and rollovers, with different costs and tracking, as highlighted in the synthesis. ProShares BITO invests in futures and swaps, not in direct Bitcoin, while iShares IBIT aims to more closely track the asset’s behavior after fees, differences that impact institutional choices and the effective cost of exposure.
Risks, liquidity, and scenarios
The interaction between flows and technical levels generates risks and opportunities. The concentration of liquidity in a few ETFs can provide a buying cushion and reduce volatility, but the dependence on these inflows creates a risk of distortion if the flows reverse. In August, there were episodes of outflows, highlighting this sensitivity. Additionally, very positive funding rates in derivatives signal persistent leverage, raising the risk of a “squeeze” if the price fails to break through resistance.
The advancement or breakthrough of the resistance at $118,000 implies:
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A higher probability of bullish continuation if spot ETFs maintain net inflows, due to their physical Bitcoin purchases.
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A risk of a correction towards technical supports at $108,000 and lower levels if the flows stop and a liquidation is amplified.
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Cost and tracking differences between spot ETFs and futures ETFs, which affect institutional investors’ choices and the effective cost of exposure.
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A concentration of liquidity in large managers (e.g., BlackRock, Fidelity) that could accelerate directional moves.
To reinstate the bullish bias, Bitcoin must recover and hold levels above $117,800 – $121,300. Net flows into spot ETFs will be the key indicator; according to the sources consulted, the evolution of these flows and the funding dynamics in derivatives will be the next milestones to watch.
