Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss brothers, filed in May a request with the CFTC to operate a designated market called “Gemini Titan” for event contracts. According to Bloomberg, the firm seeks to launch these contracts — which would cover economic, financial, political and sports forecasts — and is accelerating diversification after its September IPO that raised $425M. This matters because it introduces an institutional player with significant infrastructure and capital into a segment under intense regulatory scrutiny, with direct implications for users, compliance and counterparties.
According to Bloomberg, the formal filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) positions Gemini to offer regulated contracts that turn expectations about future events into tradable instruments. The proposed scope includes variables ranging from macroeconomic indicators to election results and sporting events, signaling broad market coverage if authorized.
The initiative arrives as platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, CME Group and Coinbase step up moves toward similar products. Sector coverage cites funding rounds and notable valuations — for example, a $300M financing and $5B valuation for a regulated player — that indicate rising competition and potential liquidity across venues.
Context and impact of prediction market contracts
The CFTC represents an operational bottleneck for these products, as the approval process can take months or years and face delays from external factors such as administrative shutdowns. Commissioner Kristin Johnson has warned about “too few guardrails” in the sector, underscoring regulatory concerns around retail protection and systemic risk.
Gemini’s entry could accelerate the professionalization and liquidity of the segment by providing AUM, custody technology and institutional access; it could also intensify regulatory scrutiny and raise KYC/AML and market-control requirements.
CFTC approval is uncertain and may impose operational guardrails that affect product design, rollout speed and eligible participants. There is a danger of manipulation by large participants and of low liquidity in specific contracts, which could distort price signals and user experience.
The next operational milestone is the CFTC’s decision on authorizing the designated market; its timetable will be decisive for the product roadmap and for the compliance requirements that will determine the commercial viability of the contracts.
