Galaxy Research warns that 72 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are still trading more than 50% below their all-time highs. The data points to a marked redistribution of capital with value concentrating in a few assets and selling pressure from large holders, affecting retail investors, crypto product managers and compliance areas. The analysis frames the market as undergoing a selective, uneven recovery.
The report by Galaxy Research describes a market dynamic that separates cryptocurrencies into two divergent trajectories: a broad majority of altcoins remains substantially depreciated, while dominant assets —Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB and XRP— show greater resilience and relative recovery, shaping what the analysis calls a “K-shaped recovery”. A K-shaped recovery is a pattern where different segments of a market evolve in opposite directions, with some recovering and others lagging behind.
According to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, the firm has reduced its year-end Bitcoin price target to $120.000 from $185.000. The revision responds to multiple headwinds noted in the analysis: significant sales by large holders (“whale selling”), competition of flows toward assets linked to artificial intelligence and the continued appeal of traditional safe havens like gold. In addition, the poor performance of companies with treasuries in Bitcoin has contributed to a feedback effect that pressures sentiment.
The paper emphasizes that the concentration of value in a few assets changes the risk matrix for tokenized products, index funds and custody services, and forces product and compliance teams to review exposure limits and KYC/AML protocols in light of greater asset-specific volatility in less liquid tokens.
What explains this historic crypto crash?
The situation could drive a durable reallocation of capital toward crypto “blue-chips” and products tied to consolidated infrastructures, while increasing regulatory scrutiny over institutional accumulation and selling practices.
For managers and compliance, this implies reviewing custody policies, AUM limits per token and stress scenarios in the face of concentrated sell-offs.
The main reading is of a market in selective rearrangement: projects with consolidated network effects lead the recovery, while a wide set of tokens faces a prolonged discount path. The next operational milestone will be the evolution of selling flows from large holders and the firm’s next update of its annual Bitcoin price target, which will mark the benchmarking for risk management and product decisions.
