HBAR faces persistent resistance around $0.15 after increased selling and a withdrawal of support by institutional investors. The technical diagnosis and the liquidity drain explain why the token struggles to regain ground, with implications for product and compliance. Short‑term dynamics are defined by bearish momentum and capital outflows that reinforce resistance zones.
Price records show key supports have been lost, with HBAR falling below $0.1458 and positioning near $0.146, while immediate resistance stands at $0.1525. Significant volume —145.7 million tokens, 73% above its moving average— has accompanied those sales, indicating a distribution cycle rather than accumulation, and underscoring a market leaning toward supply dominance.
The Chaikin Money Flow has dropped to a three‑month low, reflecting about $6.42M in outflows and signaling weaker capital inflows. The MACD shows a bearish crossover, a sign of negative momentum as it compares two moving averages to capture changes in trend strength and direction, while the RSI remains below 50, confirming seller dominance as it tracks overbought or oversold conditions on a 0–100 scale.
Technical analysis of HBAR and capital flow
On‑chain liquidity has deteriorated as the capitalization of stablecoins on the network contracted by an estimated 50–53%, pointing to reduced user activity. In derivatives, the long/short ratio stands at 0.84, indicating a net position tilted toward shorts, while HBAR’s historical correlation with Bitcoin has weakened to approximately 0.48, suggesting that HBAR is more exposed to its own bearish dynamics than to broad market movements.
Institutional sales described as a “distribution method” have reinforced resistance zones at the cited levels, limiting upside attempts despite the platform’s enterprise use features and prominent governing council. The current preference of institutional capital for caution reduces the token’s appeal as a short‑term allocation vehicle and aligns with the broader liquidity drain observed on-chain.
Regulatory uncertainty further weighs on sentiment, with potential classification of HBAR as a security and oversight by authorities such as the SEC. There is already a related ETF trading on Nasdaq, and a regulatory decision on another vehicle (Grayscale Hedera Trust ETF) is scheduled for November 12, 2025, adding a tangible risk factor for institutional flows and reinforcing cautious positioning.
The convergence of bearish technical signals, the drop in on‑chain liquidity and regulatory caution keep HBAR below $0.15 in the short term.
