TL;DR
- Bitcoin’s “Peak Signal”, a historical cycle-top warning, hasn’t triggered despite prices topping $122,000, indicating the current surge is driven by genuine demand and remains far from exhaustion.
- This rally is underpinned by spot-buying from institutions, asset managers, hedge funds, and treasuries, rather than leveraged bets, pointing to a more resilient, sustainable uptrend.
- Traders eye resistance at $123,200, then $126,500–$130,000, while healthy retracements to $115,000–$112,000 could consolidate strength; a broader institutional shift may be required to push Bitcoin toward $150,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out on X that Bitcoin’s famous “Peak Signal” has not yet appeared. This indicator combines the Market-to-Realized Price ratio with the Value Days Destroyed metric, historically flashing just before cycle highs in 2017 and 2021. Its absence amid Bitcoin’s march past $122,000 suggests the rally remains healthy and far from a final blow-off top.
Adler emphasizes that on-chain stress markers like forced rebalances and profit-taking signals are muted. Market watchers view this as confirmation that today’s upswing is underpinned by genuine demand rather than speculative excess. Bitcoin’s upward momentum, therefore, could extend further before any real exhaustion sets in.
The Peak Signal only appears at major market tops, and it hasn’t shown up this time suggesting we’re not at a peak yet. pic.twitter.com/wtojcw4VKs
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) July 16, 2025
Institutional FOMO and Spot-Driven Strength
After blasting past $123,000 on renewed institutional demand, Bitcoin retraced slightly to trade near $118,700. Analysts note that, unlike past rallies fuelled by leverage, this one is anchored in spot-buying by asset managers, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries. Zilliqa’s interim CEO, Alexander Zahnd, highlighted that such spot-driven flows, unfolding in calm market conditions, point to a more resilient and sustainable uptrend.
Key Price Levels to Watch on Both Sides
Traders eye $123,200 as the next bullish hurdle; the average cost basis of recent short-term holders pushed one standard deviation higher. Beyond that, momentum could carry Bitcoin toward $126,500 and ultimately $130,000. On the downside, healthy retracements to $115,000 or even $112,000 would likely reset the market without derailing the broader uptrend. These zones align with historical support bands born out of past accumulation phases.
Institutional Participation: Catalyst for $150K
While Bitcoin’s current rally has room to run, some analysts warn that reaching $150,000 swiftly demands a broader institutional shift. Though inflows via ETFs and custody services have ramped up, senior banking executives remain cautious, treating crypto as an emerging opportunity rather than a core strategy. A sea change in corporate and sovereign adoption could supercharge the next leg of the bull market, and finally trigger that elusive Peak Signal.
