Google is integrating real-time data from the prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi into both its Search engine and its revamped Google Finance service. This move places event-based odds—on everything from economic releases to sports outcomes—within the mainstream search interface.
Google’s new functionality within the Google Finance ecosystem signifies a broad shift: the company will allow users to pose questions like “What will GDP growth be in 2025?” or “Will the Fed cut rates this quarter?” and receive live probabilities drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi’s markets. The data will roll out initially via the Google Labs channel and gradually to the general user base over the coming weeks.
Polymarket operates on a blockchain-based model, offering users the ability to trade on predictions of future events by taking positions (or “odds”) in markets tied to macro indicators, elections, commodities and even social outcomes. Kalshi, by contrast, is a regulated U.S.-based exchange focusing on event contracts with oversight and compliance. By pulling in both models—decentralised and regulated—Google is effectively merging two approaches to forecasting into its financial and search interface.
From niche event contracts to everyday search queries
Strategically, the integration amounts to a validation of prediction markets as information tools—not just speculative venues. Their inclusion in a dominant search and finance platform increases visibility and uses the “wisdom of the crowd” in consumer workflows. For Google, this expands the scope of Google Finance beyond stocks, bonds and companies to real-time expectation markets. It also signals that such data are increasingly regarded as relevant to investing, research and decision-making.
However, key challenges remain: how reliable are the odds? How will Google display disclaimers or risks? Will users misinterpret probabilities as guarantees? Also, operating prediction markets involves regulatory complexity—especially in jurisdictions where event contracts may overlap gambling laws. Bringing this data to a mass audience will necessitate clear user education and interface design.
In summary: Google’s integration of Polymarket and Kalshi marks a meaningful step in mainstreaming prediction-market data. If the rollout succeeds, real-world probability insights may become part of everyday search and financial-decision workflows, expanding how people consume and act on forward-looking information.
