Solana’s open interest (OI) reached $16.6B, a level that concentrates leverage in futures and broadens market exposure. This milestone fuels expectations for SOL to surpass $250 and attracts the interest of institutional traders and treasuries. At the same time, the increase in OI raises the risk of liquidations in case of pullbacks, making technical levels and the flow toward potential ETF products particularly relevant.
Bullish Momentum: Record OI, Potential ETF, and Network Upgrades
The $16.6B OI is interpreted as a signal of greater confidence and activity in derivatives markets. This rise concentrates leverage in futures, expands total market exposure, and can amplify price movements, supporting a bullish narrative as long as forced selling does not occur.
Part of the optimism is linked to the possibility of a Solana ETF, which, if realized, could channel flows into SOL. Price references for 2025 range between $141 and $400: some projections reach $400, Binance (AI) suggests a range of $141–$240, and Standard Chartered targets $275 by year-end. The market highlights $250 as a key target in multiple projections, consistent with the current constructive tone.
On the technical side, the Alpenglow upgrade was approved with 99% support and targets a 150 ms finalization, reinforcing the narrative of Solana as a high-performance platform. Expansion of the DeFi ecosystem and activity in memecoins increases liquidity but also volatility; as a usage indicator, roughly $4,000M is deposited in DeFi within the network.
Risks, Key Levels, and Practical Implications for Traders and Treasuries
Losing support around $200 and $180 could trigger liquidations and a price pullback. Key risks include a potential increase in selling, reduced futures demand, and the speculative nature of part of the volume (memecoins), all of which can amplify declines if the market turns.
For traders, monitoring funding rates and OI is crucial to manage leverage risk. A potential ETF approval would further increase the need for hedging strategies. For treasury managers, the higher OI combined with network upgrades requires evaluating the cost/benefit of allocating to SOL versus waiting for regulatory clarity, calibrating exposure and timing.
The $16.6B OI and Alpenglow approval are two milestones supporting the bullish narrative. Participants should monitor support levels and the flow toward potential ETFs as near-term directional signals, while keeping in mind that the increase in leverage also heightens sensitivity to corrections.
