In the final hours of September 2025, Bitcoin trades between $112.000 and $114.000 as markets brace for the monthly close. An analyst highlights three prices that will steer the next move: resistance at $117.000, support at $106.000 and an interim objective at $120.000. A breakout on the monthly candle could spike volatility and force position changes for crypto treasurers and institutional desks.
The market hesitates inside the range: Bitcoin has not settled above $117.000 or dropped decisively below $106.000, and opinions split while price oscillates between $112.000 and $114.000. ETF inflows lead some observers to $120.000 as a near term goal, while more bullish camps quote $220.000 – $330.000 before December, revealing a wide dispersion of expectations.
A potentially volatile monthly close for Bitcoin
Intermediate models illustrate that dispersion: averages sit at $145.167 (Finder.com) and $180.000 (VanEck), while researcher Sminston With lists $165.000 for 2026 and a top zone of $200.000 – $290.000, underscoring the gap between chart-based and high-side estimates. Track records are weak, with 12 – 18 month forecast accuracy near 30.%, so targets function more as sketches than promises.
ETF flows matter most over short windows: a paper finds that ETF inflows nudge spot prices over days through sentiment and momentum, but the link fades across longer windows. Technical definition (1 sentence): ETF inflows are the cash that enters Bitcoin exchange traded funds and, per the cited paper, sway spot prices in the short run.
The chance of a sharp move at the monthly close pushes desks to shift liquidity and reset stop orders, aligning exposures with the potential for a breakout around the marked levels.
A breach of $117.000 or $106.000 could reset perpetual swaps, open new positions and close old ones, with open interest and funding rates adjusting as the market reprices risk.
With 12 – 18 month hit rates near 30%, headline targets serve as scenarios rather than guarantees, and positioning should reflect that uncertainty.
