Standard Chartered estimates that as much as $1 trillion could migrate from emerging market bank deposits into stablecoins by 2028. The bank argues this shift could redraw how households, firms and central banks handle savings and liquidity, setting the stage for significant changes in financial intermediation and policy.
The forecast sits within a call that the stablecoin market may reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, while JPMorgan’s lower $500 billion estimate highlights how uncertain the pace and reach of adoption remain.
Standard Chartered sets a $2 trillion stablecoin market by 2028 versus JPMorgan’s $500 billion, underlining wide model risk and the limits of current mass use, which remains mostly within the crypto sector. The gap reflects uncertainty as rules and payment rails are still in flux, leaving the trajectory of real-world payments adoption unclear.
In countries with volatile currencies, users want dollar exposure with fewer steps. Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research, and Madhur Jha, Global Economist and Head of Thematic Research, call stablecoins “dollar-denominated bank accounts” for many people in those economies, emphasizing convenience and perceived safety.
A stablecoin is a digital token whose value is fixed to a stable asset such as the dollar to cut the price swings seen in other cryptocurrencies, positioning it as a tool for savings and transactions where local currency stability is a concern.
Potential impacts and regulatory guardrails
Standard Chartered lists four concrete effects if the $1 trillion move occurs, spanning banking liquidity, monetary policy, regulation and market scenarios.
A withdrawal of up to $1 trillion from deposits could squeeze liquidity and push banking disintermediation, cutting the funds available for domestic lending. Broad stablecoin use could speed “digital dollarization,” curb demand for local money and narrow the room for monetary policy.
Drafts such as the U.S. GENIUS Act demand one-to-one reserves and, in the versions cited, bar yield on compliant tokens; Standard Chartered says users in emerging markets care most about the safety of principal.
A possible $1 trillion flow from emerging market deposits, a $2 trillion versus $500 billion forecast range, the GENIUS Act shaping issuer structure, and risks centered on disintermediation and digital dollarization, all of which frame the stakes for financial systems navigating the rise of stablecoins.
Standard Chartered flags 2028 as the year to watch for adoption speed and regulatory reaction, with the final shape of rules such as the GENIUS Act and actual liquidity moves in emerging markets serving as the next signals for how savings and payment behaviors may evolve.
