TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes warns this could be the last chance to buy Bitcoin below $100,000, driven by liquidity from Treasury buybacks.
- The weakening of the dollar and the expansion of the monetary base increase Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation.
- Institutional funds like Metaplanet are already increasing their BTC exposure, accumulating over $400 million as part of a defensive strategy.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, issued a direct warning to those following the crypto market. According to his analysis, this might be the last opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $100,000. The statement triggered immediate reactions among retail investors and institutional funds.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Absorb Market Liquidity
The core of his argument centers on U.S. Treasury bond buybacks. This mechanism, which involves the government repurchasing its own debt on the open market, releases liquidity that often flows into risk assets. Hayes believes Bitcoin is the main candidate to absorb that liquidity. The combination of limited supply and rising demand could spark a new price surge, driven not only by speculation but also by concrete macroeconomic factors.
Like the Easter bunny, bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce!
Seriously fam, this might be the last chance you have to buy $BTC < $100k 😉😉😉😉.
New essay drops this week about The BBC Bazooka, treasury buy backs.
Yaxhtzee pic.twitter.com/iYCXqGxsws
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 21, 2025
The global monetary context supports his view. Jamie Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision, estimates that Bitcoin could surpass $130,000 by the end of 2025. His projection is based on the expansion of the M2 monetary base and the search for assets that can serve as reserves amid persistent inflation. The logic is straightforward: the more money is printed, the greater the interest in scarce instruments like BTC.
The Dollar’s Weakness
At the same time, the weakening of the dollar is adding upward pressure. The index that tracks its strength against other currencies hit lows not seen since March 2022. In that scenario, both gold and Bitcoin are regaining their roles as safe-haven assets. Technical analysts have also identified positive signals: the breakout of bearish patterns, increased buying volume, and a growing correlation with gold’s behavior.
Meanwhile, major funds are already moving. Institutional investors in Japan and the United Kingdom are increasing their positions. Metaplanet, often seen as the Japanese equivalent of MicroStrategy, added $28 million in BTC and now holds over $400 million. This is not a passing trend, but part of a strategy to protect against unstable economic conditions.
For Hayes, time is running out. If Treasury buybacks persist and monetary expansion continues, Bitcoin may permanently leave the five-digit range behind.
