The price of Bitcoin remains pinned below the $92,000 mark, but four critical macroeconomic and structural elements could drive a massive rally in the medium term. Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, recently defended his operating model amid market doubts, stating firmly that they are a public operating company with a unique treasury strategy. This statement comes at a time when the Bitcoin price recovery faces significant regulatory and financial hurdles that will define its trajectory.
Recent market data shows a 22% drop over the last 30 days, trapping the price under key resistance levels. However, the iShares TIPS Bond ETF has resumed its upward trajectory after testing support at 110.50 on Thursday, which typically indicates higher inflation expectations that benefit hedging assets. On the other hand, futures traders now assign a 78% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50% or above through late January.
Can monetary policy trigger the next bull market?
Uncertainty persists due to the extended government funding shutdown, forcing analysts to closely monitor the November jobs report and the PCE index. Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and the Trump administration has clearly signaled its preference for a less restrictive monetary stance. These structural changes in the US economy could serve as fundamental fuel for risk assets, stimulating growth through expanded government borrowing.
A critical agenda item is the MSCI Index decision, expected on January 15, regarding the potential exclusion of companies primarily focused on digital asset accumulation. This would directly affect passive funds linked to Strategy, representing nearly $9 billion in market exposure. Likewise, Bitcoin derivatives show a bearish skew with a 10% premium on put options, suggesting caution ahead of the massive $22.6 billion expiry on December 26.
The path toward the $112,000 level remains technically feasible, although indicators suggest this scenario might materialize more strongly during the first half of 2026. Investors will need to wait for the options skew to neutralize below 5% to confirm a definitive return of institutional and retail confidence in the market. Thus, the interaction between federal policies and institutional flows will dictate the pace of the next expansion phase.
